Christopher Wlezien

Interests

Public opinion, public policy, political institutions, elections, research methods

Biography

Christopher Wlezien is Hogg Professor of Government.  He joined the faculty in 2013 from Temple University in Philadelphia.  Previously he taught at Oxford University, where he was Reader of Comparative Government and a Fellow of Nuffield College. While at Oxford, he co-founded the ESRC-funded Oxford Spring School in Quantitative Methods for Social Research. Before that, he taught at the University of Houston, where he was founding director of the Institute for the Study of Political Economy. He holds or has held visiting positions at Academia Sinica (Taipei), Australian National University, Columbia University, European University Institute (Florence), Instituto Empresa (Madrid), Juan March Institute (Madrid), University of Mannheim (Germany), McGill University (Montreal), Sciences Po (Paris), and the University of Manchester (UK). He received his Ph.D. from the University of Iowa in 1989 and his B.A. from Saint Xavier College (Chicago) in 1984.

His primary, ongoing research develops a “thermostatic” model of public opinion and policy and examines the dynamic interrelationships between preferences for spending and budgetary policy in various domains. A cross-national investigation focusing on the US, the UK, and Canada is the subject of a book titled Degrees of Democracy, published by Cambridge University Press. Wlezien edited a related book on Who Gets Represented?, which was published by the Russell Sage Foundation. A published article in the area tests theories about the effects of federalism, executive-legislative imbalance, and the proportionality of electoral systems in 17 countries. Current research considers news coverage and how it mediates public responsiveness to policy. 

His other major area of research addresses the evolution of voter preferences expressed in pre-election polls over the course of the election cycle. It has been the subject of numerous articles on the US and a book The Timeline of Presidential Elections that was published in 2012 by the University of Chicago Press. A related e-book The 2012 Election and the Timeline of Presidential Elections was published in 2014.  His current work in the area undertakes cross-national analysis, the first published article on which examines how political institutions condition the structure and evolution of preferences in over 300 elections in 45 countries.  Recent methodological research explores issues in the application of the "timeline" approach to studying electoral dynamics.

Wlezien was founding co-editor of the international Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.  He currently is Associate Editor of Public Opinion Quarterly, Research and Politics, and Parliamentary Affairs and a member of the editorial boards of six other journals. At the University of Texas, he is chair of the methods field in the Department of Government and a faculty affiliate of the Policy Agendas Project and the Center for European Studies.  

Courses

Publications

"Election Polling Errors across Space and Time," with Will Jennings. Nature Human Behaviour, forthcoming.

"Understanding Equation Balance in Time Series Regression: An Extension," with Peter Enns.  Political Science and Research Methods, forthcoming. 

"An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the United States," with Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Joshua Clinton, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kylie McGeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen Olson, Doug Rivers, Lydia Saad, and Evans Witt.  Public Opinion Quarterly, forthcoming. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion  Research, New Orleans, 2017. 

“Public Opinion and Policy Representation: On Conceptualization, Measurement and Interpretation.” Policy Studies Journal, vol. 45, 2017.  Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2014, and at the Institute for Political Methodology, Taipei, 2016, and the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, Ann Arbor, 2016.  

"The 'Timeline' Method of Studying Electoral Dynamics," with Will Jennings and Robert S. Erikson.  Electoral Studies, vol 48, 2017. Paper presented at the Conference on Innovations in Comparative Political Methodology, College Station, Texas, 2015. 

“A Cross-National Analysis of the Causes and Consequences of Economic News," with Stuart Soroka and Dominik Stecula. Social Science Quarterly, vol. 98, 2017. Paper presented at the Conference on the New World of Comparative Political Communication, College Station, Texas, 2016.  

"Understanding Equation Balance in Time Series Regression," with Peter Enns.  The Political Methodologist, 2017. Paper presented at the Texas Methods Conference, Houston, 2017. 

“Representative Systems and Policy Punctuations,” with EJ Fagan and Bryan Jones.  Journal of European Public Policy, vol. 24, 2017.  Paper presented at the Conference on Political Budgeting across Europe, College Station, Texas, 2015.

“When do the Rich Win?” with Alex Branham and Stuart Soroka.  Political Science Quarterly, vol 132, 2017.  Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Puerto Rico, 2016, the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2016, and the Annual Meetin of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Austin, 2016.

"Advances in the Study of Democratic Responsiveness: An Introduction," with Peter Esaiasson.  Comparative Political Studies, vol. 50, 2017.

“Policy (Mis)Representation and the Cost of Ruling: US Presidential Elections in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Political Studies, vol 50, 2017. Paper presented at the Conference on Advances in the Study of Democratic Responsiveness, Gothenburg, Sweden, 2014, and the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2016.

“The Company You Keep: How Citizens infer Parties’ Positions on Europe from Governing Coalition Arrangements,” with James Adams and Lawrence Ezrow. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 60, 2016. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 2013, and the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2015.

“An Analysis of the Public’s Personal, National and EU Issue Priorities,” with Shaun Bevan and Will Jennings. Journal of European Public Policy, vol. 23, 2016. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Group of the Political Studies Association, Edinburgh, 2014.

“The Majoritarian and Proportional Visions and Democratic Responsiveness,” with Stuart Soroka. Electoral Studies, vol. 40, 2015. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Victoria, British Columbia, 2012, the Annual Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association, San Antonio, 2014, and the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, 2015.

“The Timeline of Elections: A Comparative Perspective,” with Will Jennings. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 60, 2016. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties subgroup of the Political Studies Association, Lancaster, UK, 2013, the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2014, and the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, 2015.

“Electoral Systems and Opinion Representation,” with Stuart Soroka. Representation, vol. 51, 2015. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Victoria, British Columbia, 2012, the Annual Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association, San Antonio, 2014, and the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, 2015.

“The Myopic Voter? The Economy and US Presidential Elections,” Electoral Studies, vol. 39, 2015. Presented at the Conference on Methodological Innovations in the Study of Elections in Europe and Beyond, College Station, Texas, 2014.

“Preferences, Problems and Representation,” with Will Jennings. Political Science Research and Methods, vol. 3, 2015. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Group of the Political Studies Association, Oxford, 2012, the Annual Meeting of the Comparative Agendas Project, Antwerp, 2013, and the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, 2015.

“It’s (Change in) the (Future) Economy, Stupid: Economic Indicators, the Media and Public Opinion,” with Stuart Soroka and Dominik Stecula. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 59, 2015. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2013; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Boston, 2013.

“Polls and the Vote in Britain,” with Will Jennings, Stephen Fisher, Robert Ford, and Mark Pickup. Political Studies, vol. 61, 2013.

“Political Institutions and the Opinion-Policy Link,” with Stuart Soroka. West European Politics, vol. 35, 2012. Presented at the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions of Workshops, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2011, the Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Group of the Political Studies Association, Exeter, UK, 2011, and the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2012.

“Markets vs. Polls as Election Predictors: An Historical Assessment,” with Robert S. Erikson. Electoral Studies, vol. 31, 2012. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Hollywood, Florida, 2009.

“Distinguishing between Most Important Issues and Problems?” with Will Jennings. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 75, 2011. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties Group of the Political Studies Association, Glasgow, 2009.

“Performance Pressure: Partisan Alignment and the Economic Vote,” with Mark Andreas Kayser. European Journal of Political Research, vol. 50, 2011. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2006. Winner of the European Politics and Society award for the best paper presented at the 2006 Meeting of the American Political Science Association.

“From Polls to Votes to Seats: The 2010 British Election,” with Stephen Fisher, Robert Ford, Will Jennings and Mark Pickup. Electoral Studies, vol. 30, 2011. Presented at the Conference on Methods and Models for Election Forecasting in the UK, Manchester, 2010.

“Federalism and Public Responsiveness to Policy,” with Stuart Soroka. Publius, vol. 41, 2011. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, 2009.

“Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections,” with Joseph Bafumi and Robert S. Erikson. Journal of Politics, vol. 72, 2010. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Anaheim, 2008.

“The Crystallization of Voter Preferences during the 2008 Presidential Election Campaign,” with Robert S. Erikson and Costas Panagopoulos. Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 40, 2010.

“Center-Party Strength and Major-Party Polarization in Britain,” with Jack H. Nagel. British Journal of Political Science, vol. 40, 2010.

“The Dynamics of Poll Performance during the 2008 Nomination Context,” with Michael Traugott. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 73, 2009.

“A General Empirical Law of Public Budgets: A Comparative Analysis,” with Bryan Jones, Frank Baumgartner, Christian Breunig, Stuart Soroka, Martial Foucault, Abel Francois, Christoffer Green- Pedersen, Chris Koski, Peter John, Peter B. Mortensen, Frederic Varone, and Stefaan Walgrave. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 53, 2009.

“On Filtering Longitudinal Public Opinion Data: Issues in Identification and Representation of True Change,” with Mark Pickup. Electoral Studies, vol. 28, 2009. Presented at the Workshop on Producing Better Measures by Combining Data Cross Temporally, Nuffield College, Oxford, 2007.

“Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?” with Robert S. Erikson. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 72, 2008. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the World Association of Public Opinion Research, Cannes, 2005; also presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 2005, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Montreal, 2006, and the Elections, and the Public Opinion, and Parties Group of the Political Studies Association, Bristol, UK, 2007, as well as the First World Meeting of the Public Choice Society, Amsterdam, 2007.

“On the Limits to Inequality in Representation,” with Stuart Soroka. PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 41, 2008. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2006; also presented at the Annual Meetings of the Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties Group of the Political Studies Association, Nottingham, UK, 2006, and the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2007.

“The Economy and the Presidential Vote: What Leading Indicators Reveal Well in Advance,” with Robert S. Erikson. International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 24, 2008. Presented at the 27th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, New York, 2007.

“Does Political Information Matter? An Experimental Test Relating to Party Positions on Europe,” with James Tilley. Political Studies, vol. 56, 2008. Presented at the Biannual Meeting of the European Consortium of Political Research, Budapest, 2005. Winner of the Political Studies Association’s Harrison Prize for the best paper published in the 2008 volume of Political Studies.

“Partisan Preferences, Electoral Prospects, and Economic Expectations,” with Matthew Ladner. Comparative Political Studies, vol. 40, 2007. Presented at the Conference on Perceptions, Preferences and Rationalization: Overcoming the Problem of Causal Inference in the Study of Political Behavior, Nuffield College, Oxford, 2004.

“The Horse Race: What Polls Reveal as the Election Campaign Unfolds,” with Robert S. Erikson. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, vol. 19, 2007. Presented at the Gallup Symposium on the Science of Pre-Election Polling, Washington, D.C., May, 2002.

“Public Expenditure in the UK: How Measures Matter,” with Stuart Soroka and Iain McLean. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, vol. 169, 2006. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Political Studies Association, Aberdeen, 2002; also presented at the Conference on Budgetary Policy Change, Oxford, 2002.

“On the Salience of Political Issues: The Problem with ‘Most Important Problem’.” Electoral Studies, vol. 24, 2005. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2001; also presented at the Annual Meetings of the Southwest Political Science Association, New Orleans, 2002, and the EPOP Group of the Political Studies Association, Cardiff, 2003.

“Opinion-Policy Dynamics: Public Preferences and Public Expenditure in the UK,” with Stuart Soroka. British Journal of Political Science, vol. 35, 2005. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the EPOP Group of the Political Studies Association, Salford, UK, 2002; also presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Boston, 2002, and the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2003.

“Whether the Campaign Mattered and How.” Parliamentary Affairs, vol. 58, 2005.

“Opinion Representation and Policy Feedback: Canada in Comparative Perspective,” with Stuart Soroka. Canadian Journal of Political Science, vol. 37, 2004. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Halifax, 2003. Winner of the Canadian Political Science Association’s John McMenemy Prize for the best paper published in the 2004 volume of the Canadian Journal of Political Science.

“Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics,” with Robert S. Erikson and Costas Panagopoulos. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 68, 2004. Presented at the Meeting of the World Association of Public Opinion Research, Prague, 2003

“Public Expenditure in the English Regions: Measurement Problems and (Partial) Solutions,” with Gavin Cameron and Iain McLean. Political Quarterly, vol. 75, 2004.

“Patterns of Representation: Dynamics of Public Preferences and Policy.” Journal of Politics, vol. 66, 2004. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 1995; also presented at the Annual Meetings of the Southwest Political Science Association, New Orleans, 1997, and the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1998. Winner of the Pi Sigma Alpha award for the best paper presented at the 1997 Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association.

“Measures and Models of Budgetary Policy,” with Stuart Soroka. Policy Studies Journal, vol. 31, 2003.

“Presidential Election Polls in 2000: A Study in Dynamics,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 33, 2003. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 2001.

“The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns,” with Robert S. Erikson. Journal of Politics, vol. 64, 2002. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, 1998; also presented at the Annual Meetings of the Southwest Political Science Association, San Antonio, 1999, and the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2000.

“Reinventing Election Studies,” with Mark N. Franklin. Electoral Studies, vol. 21, 2002.

“Campaign Effects in Theory and Practice,” with Robert S. Erikson. American Politics Research, vol. 29, 2001. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, 2000.

“Ideological Placements and Political Judgments of Government Institutions,” with Christopher Carman. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 65, 2001. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1999; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Savannah, 1999.

“After the Election: Our Forecast in Retrospect,” with Robert S. Erikson. American Politics Research, vol. 29, 2001.

“An Essay on ‘Combined’ Time Series Processes.” Electoral Studies, vol. 19, 2000. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, 1998; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Savannah, 1999.

“Presidential Polls as a Time Series: The Case of 1996,” with Robert S. Erikson. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 93, 1999. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, St. Louis, 1998; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1998.

“Social Groups and Political Judgments,” with Arthur H. Miller. Social Science Quarterly, vol. 78, 1997. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, 1994.

“The Responsive Public: Issue Salience, Policy Change, and Preferences for European Unification,” with Mark Franklin. Journal of Theoretical Politics, vol. 9, 1997. Presented at the Joint Sessions of the European Consortium for Political Research, Bern, Switzerland, 1997; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1997.

“Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity,” with Mark Franklin and Daniel Twiggs. Political Behavior, vol. 19, 1997. Presented at the Conference on the Economy and Political Behavior, Houston, 1995.

“Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts,” with Robert S. Erikson. American Politics Quarterly, vol. 24, 1996. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association, Dallas, 1995; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1995.

“Dynamics of Representation: The Case of U.S. Spending on Defense.” British Journal of Political Science, vol. 26, 1996. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 1992; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1992.

“The Contamination of Responses to Survey Items: Economic Perceptions and Political Judgments,” with Nathaniel T. Wilcox. Political Analysis, vol. 5, 1996. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, New Orleans, 1993.

“The President, Congress, and Appropriations.” American Politics Quarterly, vol. 24, 1996. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, New Orleans, 1991.

“The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending.” American Journal of Political Science, vol. 39, 1995. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association, San Antonio, 1994; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1994. Winner of the Pi Sigma Alpha award for the best paper presented at the 1994 Meeting of the Southwest Political Science Association.

“The Impact of Legal Constraints on Voter Registration, Turnout, and the Composition of the American Electorate,” with Glenn Mitchell. Political Behavior, vol. 17, 1995. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1989; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, 1988.

“Attitudes toward Europe and Referendum Votes,” with Mark Franklin and Michael Marsh. Electoral Studies, vol. 13, 1994.

“The Politics of Impoundments.” Political Research Quarterly, vol. 47, 1994. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1989.

“The Courts, Interest Groups, and Public Opinion about Abortion,” with Malcolm Goggin. Political Behavior, vol. 15, 1993.

“Substitutability and the Politics of Macroeconomic Policy,” with Richard Jankowski. Journal of Politics, vol. 55, 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 1987; also presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1987.

“The Social Group Dynamics of Partisan Evaluations,” with Arthur H. Miller. Electoral Studies, vol. 12, 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, 1989.

“The Political Economy of Supplemental Appropriations,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, vol. 18, 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1988.

“A Reference Group Theory of Partisan Coalitions,” with Arthur H. Miller and Anne Hildreth. Journal of Politics, vol. 53, 1991. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 1988.

Books

Authored Books

The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter

Christopher Wlezien, Robert S. Erikson

The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter
October 2012
University Of Chicago Press

Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion and Policy

Christopher Wlezien, Stuart N. Soroka

Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion and Policy
December 2009
Cambridge University Press

The 2012 Campaign and the Timeline of Presidential Elections

Christopher Wlezien, Robert S. Erikson

The 2012 Campaign and the Timeline of Presidential Elections
February 2014
University of Chicago Press

 

Edited Books

The UK General Election of 2010: Explaining the Outcome

Christopher Wlezien, Justin Fisher

The UK General Election of 2010: Explaining the Outcome
September 2011
HRoutledge 

Who Gets Represented?

Christopher Wlezien, Peter K. Enns

Who Gets Represented?
January 2011
Russell Sage Foundation

Britain Votes

Christopher Wlezien, Pippa Norris

Britain Votes
December 2005
Oxford University Press

The Future of Election Studies

Christopher Wlezien, M.N. Franklin

The Future of Election Studies
October 2002
Emerald Group Publishing

Datasets

Linked below is the poll data used in my book with Robert S. Erikson, The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012), and our follow-up e-book, The 2012 Campaign and the Timeline of Presidential Elections (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014).  The data set contains results of trial-heat polls pitting the two major-party presidential candidates in the US for each of the sixteen elections between 1952 and 2012.  Specifically, it includes the Democratic Party share of the two-party vote in the daily poll-of-polls during each election year, which is referred to as "RawDemShare".  Since the daily poll-of-polls is missing on many days during the campaign timeline, we also produced an interpolated variable, called "InterDemShare".  The polls are dated based on the number of days before Election Day using the "Til" variable.  For measurement details, see the original (2012) Timeline book, particularly pages 17-26. 

Timeline Poll Data