Study Shows Electoral College Could Flip Close Elections

Fri, September 27, 2019
Study Shows Electoral College Could Flip Close Elections

There have been four times when the winner of the Presidency did not receive the most votes: 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. What has been unclear until now is how often we should expect these electoral inversions. Was it statistically probable or was it a fluke that the Electoral College would have generated four inversions in the last two centuries?

New research from the University of Texas Electoral College Study (UTECS) provides an answer, using Monte Carlo simulations that generate probability distributions over the likelihood of inversions in elections extending back to 1836.

University of Texas Electoral College Study website: http://utecs.org

Life & Letters - College of Liberal Arts Magazine Q & A: https://lifeandletters.la.utexas.edu/2019/09/why-the-most-popular-candidate-in-a-close-election-will-probably-lose/

 

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